Water Ravishing MillTier 3
at Collinsville Regionals
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 17.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.1% | -11.4 |
| Water Fractal | 15.7% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 37.8% | -9.1 |
| Water Genbu | 7.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.5% | +2.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.0% | -8.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -0.5 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 4.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 40.9% | -8.7 |
| Water Allies | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.5% | -4.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 48.2% | -1.7 |
| Wind Exia | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
| Fire Kongming | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +18.0 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.1% | +19.3 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 33 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 33 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aqueous Stallion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diffusive Block | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Temptation's Facade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Pelagic Fatestone | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Carpsong Coda | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nico, Rapture's Embrace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Glacial Evocation | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Splashing Spearguard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Conniving Plans | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shield | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Torrential Blast | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fabled Sapphire Fatestone | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Savage Smash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ravishing Finale | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |